Regional crisis brief
What is actually being fought over in each country, a tappable map of the region, and a live 24-hour feed of regional coverage.
Al-Shabaab retains rural control and taxation power across much of the south and mounts regular attacks in Mogadishu. The handover from the African Union mission to Somali forces, disputes with Puntland and Jubaland over the constitution and elections, and rows over Ethiopian sea access all complicate the security picture.
Dots mark capitals, squares mark major cities and ports (hover for detail), and the dashed arrows trace the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean shipping corridors. Borders are simplified for legibility and are not an authority on disputed boundaries.
War between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has split the country, with the army holding Port Sudan and the east while the RSF dominates much of Darfur and Kordofan. Siege warfare around state capitals, ethnic killings in Darfur and blocked aid corridors have produced the world's largest displacement crisis and confirmed famine in several areas.
The Pretoria agreement ended large-scale war in Tigray but left disputed territories, displaced returns and disarmament unresolved. Fighting with Fano militias in Amhara and the OLA in Oromia continues, while Addis Ababa's search for sovereign sea access keeps relations with Somalia and Eritrea tense.
Al-Shabaab retains rural control and taxation power across much of the south and mounts regular attacks in Mogadishu. The handover from the African Union mission to Somali forces, disputes with Puntland and Jubaland over the constitution and elections, and rows over Ethiopian sea access all complicate the security picture.
Comparatively stable and self-governing since 1991, but the loss of Las Anod to SSC-Khatumo forces reshaped its eastern frontier. Recognition talks and the Berbera port and corridor agreements keep Hargeisa central to Red Sea diplomacy without changing its formal status.
No active internal war, but indefinite national service drives sustained outward migration and Asmara's relations with Addis Ababa have deteriorated sharply over ports and the Tigray settlement — the most-watched risk of a new inter-state war in the region.
Internally stable and the region's logistics hub, but it hosts US, French, Chinese, Japanese and Italian forces side by side, and its economy is exposed to any prolonged disruption of Red Sea traffic.
The revitalised peace agreement remains largely unimplemented, with repeated election delays, unintegrated armed forces and deadly communal violence. Damage to the export pipeline through Sudan has cut the oil revenue the state depends on.
Kenya anchors regional mediation and hosts hundreds of thousands of refugees, while facing al-Shabaab raids in the north-east counties and periodic domestic unrest over cost-of-living and policing.
BBC, BBC Somali, Reuters, Al Jazeera, AllAfrica and regional wires — live refresh is only active on horncompass.world