HCHorn Compass
Naval vessels in formation at dusk near a coastline

Geopolitics

Regional tensions, alliances and military movements

A mapped view of where pressure is concentrating, who is aligned with whom, and how the current configuration was built.

Flashpoint map

Select a marker to read the current assessment.

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Alliance blocs

NATO

32 members

Collective defence under Article 5, enlarged by Finland and Sweden; rearmament targets pushed well above the old 2% benchmark.

CSTO & bilateral Russian pacts

6 members + partners

Formally a mutual-defence bloc, in practice increasingly supplemented by bilateral treaties with North Korea and Iran.

AUKUS / Quad

3 / 4 members

Indo-Pacific technology and submarine cooperation plus a looser diplomatic quadrilateral aimed at balancing China.

BRICS+

Expanded membership

Not a military alliance, but an accelerating effort to build payment, lending and diplomatic alternatives to Western institutions.

African Union & IGAD

Continental / regional

Mediation and peace-support machinery for the Horn, constrained by funding gaps and member-state rivalries.

Gulf Cooperation Council

6 members

Hedging between Washington and Beijing while normalising ties across old regional divides.

Military movements

Baltic & Black SeaReinforced multinational battlegroups, expanded air policing and new integrated air-defence deployments.
Western PacificCarrier strike group rotations, dispersed basing agreements and expanded missile deployments on allied territory.
Red SeaMultinational escort task forces protecting merchant traffic through Bab el-Mandeb.
Eastern MediterraneanConcentrated naval presence supporting strike and evacuation contingencies.
ArcticReactivated airfields, icebreaker construction and expanded long-range aviation patrols.
SahelWestern force withdrawals replaced by alternative security contractors and new basing arrangements.

Timeline: how we got here

  1. 2014

    Annexation of Crimea

    Ends the post-Cold War security consensus in Europe and restarts NATO's eastern build-up.

  2. 2019

    INF Treaty collapses

    Intermediate-range missiles return as a legal option for both Washington and Moscow.

  3. 2022

    Full-scale invasion of Ukraine

    Largest European land war since 1945; nuclear signalling re-enters mainstream diplomacy.

  4. 2023

    Finland and Sweden move into NATO

    Baltic security architecture is redrawn; Russia suspends New START inspections the same year.

  5. 2023–24

    Red Sea shipping attacks

    Global trade reroutes around the Cape; several navies deploy to a single chokepoint.

  6. 2024

    Russia revises nuclear doctrine

    Declared thresholds for nuclear use are formally lowered.

  7. 2025

    Direct Iran–Israel exchanges

    State-on-state strikes normalise in a region with unresolved nuclear questions.

  8. 2026

    New START lapses

    For the first time since 1972, no binding treaty limits US and Russian strategic arsenals.

Related

The nuclear dimension of these flashpoints — arsenals, doctrines and the arms-control timeline — is tracked on the International page.

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