Horn of Africa Dashboard

Regional tension levels

Severe

SAF–RSF fighting across Darfur and Kordofan, with the largest displacement crisis in the world.

High

Fano insurgency in Amhara and unresolved implementation of the Pretoria agreement in Tigray.

Elevated

Port and coastline access diplomacy remains the key bilateral irritant, mediated by Türkiye and the Gulf.

High

Rural taxation and urban attacks continue as the AU mission transitions to Somali-led security.

Elevated

Shipping risk premia and naval escorting keep the corridor militarised.

Watch

Berbera-linked diplomacy and recognition debates continue without formal status change.

Actor	Presence	Role
United States	Camp Lemonnier, Djibouti	Counter-terrorism, ISR, regional command hub
France	Djibouti	Largest French base in Africa
China	Djibouti support base	First overseas PLA Navy facility
Japan	Djibouti	Anti-piracy and escort operations
Türkiye	TURKSOM, Mogadishu	Somali army training and defence cooperation
UAE	Bosaso, Berbera links	Port investment and force training
African Union	AUSSOM / successor mission	Stabilisation handover to Somali forces
EU / multinational	Atalanta, Aspides	Naval escort in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea

Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities (Ethiopia–Tigray)
Signed: 2022
In force, partial implementation
Ethiopia–Somalia Ankara Declaration process
Signed: 2024
Talks continuing
Djibouti Code of Conduct / Jeddah Amendment
Signed: 2009 / 2017
Active maritime security framework
Somalia debt relief (HIPC completion)
Signed: 2023
Completed
IGAD mediation frameworks (Sudan)
Signed: Ongoing
Stalled
Berbera port and corridor agreements
Signed: 2016–
Operational, politically contested

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For country-by-country history and politics, see the Horn of Africa section.